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K-shaped Recovery

SHENG Zhongming - Research Associate, CF40 Institute; GUO Kai - Senior Fellow, CF40

Abstract: The paper analyzes China’s economic recovery in the first half of 2023, which is characterized by a k-shaped pattern. Under the K-reshaped recovery, the difference between macro-economic trend and micro-subject feeling is huge, and the guiding role of macro-economic index will be distorted. It is suggested that policy support should focus more on the lower half of the k-shaped recovery, because whether policy protection during this stage can provide “timely help” wi... 07.26.2023

Deleveraging may Require More Leverage (at Lower Interest Rate)

Zhu He - Research Fellow, CF40 Institute; Guo Kai - Senior Fellow, CF40 Institute

Abstract: The paper discusses the changes in new debt and leverage under two different policy combinations, namely "stabilizing leverage" and "stabilizing demand". The conclusions show that stabilizing demand requires more new debt than stabilizing leverage, but the resulting increase in leverage is much smaller than the result of stabilizing leverage. Finally, in the light of these results, the paper offers three policy suggestions. Two issues are hugely controversial in th... 07.26.2023

China and Japan are vastly different, so hardly will history simply repeat itself

Li Xunlei - Member of Academic Committee, Shanghai Finance Institute; Chief Economist, Zhongtai Securities

This article was released on Li Xunlei’s WeChat blog on July 9th, 2023. The views expressed herewith are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations. It is translated by CF40 and has not been reviewed by the author. 07.26.2023

The Risk Situation of LGFV Debt and Strategies for Mitigation

SHENG Zhongming - Research Associate, CF40 Institute

The article is one of CF40’s briefings. It is translated by CF40 and has not been reviewed by the authors. The views expressed herewith are the authors’ own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations. 07.26.2023

Accumulative Pension Fund and Long-Term Capital Formation

LI Bo - Member, Committee on International Monetary Law, International Law Association; CHEN Andi - Doctor, Tsinghua PBC School of Finance, etc.

It is translated by CF40 and has not been reviewed by the authors. The views expressed herewith are the authors’ own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations. 07.04.2023

Embrace the Trend of the Times

Gao Shanwen - CF40 Academic Committee Member; Chief Economist, Essence Securities

This is the speech made by the author at the interim strategy conference of Essence Securities on June 7, 2023. It is translated by CF40 and has not been reviewed by the authors. The views expressed herewith are the authors ‘own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations. 07.04.2023

“Excess Savings” ≈ 0

GUO Kai - Senior Fellow, CF40 Institute; ZHU He - Research Fellow, CF40 Institute

Abstract: Since 2022, there has been a significant increase in deposits in Chinese residents' bank accounts, with a substantial portion of the additional savings believed to be "excess savings." To understand whether "excess savings" exist in China, the authors reference the experience of the United States and examine basic phenomena, concepts, and theories. They conclude the Chinese household sector does not have "excess savings" as the disposable income of China’s household... 06.28.2023

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