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Five Doubts About Lowering Policy Rates

ZHANG Bing - CF40 Non-Resident Senior Fellow; Deputy Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

This article was first published in CF40’s WeChat blog on August 4, 2023. It is translated by CF40 and has not been reviewed by the author. The views expressed herewith are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations. 08.25.2023

Persistent Insufficiency in Demand: Is a More Robust Macroeconomic Policy Needed?

Guo Kai - Senior Fellow, CF40

The article examines a significant paradox within the Chinese economy: a notable deficiency in demand characterized by feeble consumption, investment, and external demand, culminating in low price levels. The findings underscore that the central predicament stems from consumer confidence and expectations, extending beyond mere aggregate demand policies. Ultimately, based on these outcomes, the paper suggests anchoring policy to a more elevated inflation target to invigorate d... 08.22.2023

The key to stabilizing exchange rate expectations is to stabilize economic expectations, and the RMB is expected to rise below 7 against US dollar by the end of the year

Wang Tao - CF40 Guest Researcher; Chief China Economist, UBS Securities

Abstract:Multiple internal and external factors contribute to the recent depreciation of the RMB. The monetary and credit policies may continue to relax in the next phase. The People’s Bank of China may cut interest rates again this year, still by ten basis points. In the short term, the widening bond spreads between China and US may put further depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate. But if the interest rate cut is reinforced by strong growth-stabilizing policies and... 08.03.2023

12022 Qujing Report: Recreate the Real Picture of China’s Cross-Border Capital Flows to Grasp the Risks and Response to Capital-Account Opening

It is translated by CF40 and has not been reviewed by the authors. The views expressed herewith are the authors‘ own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations. 08.02.2023

New Adventure of China’s Economy After Population Decline

CAI Fang - CF40 Advisor; Chief Expert of National Think Tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)

Abstract: In the era of negative population growth, the author argues that the challenge of declining demographic dividends also presents opportunities for the emergence of reform dividends. The most important reforms are in the household registration system, the education system, and the market system. First, the core of the household registration system reform is to allow migrant workers to settle in cities and become urban residents. Second, we need to reform the education... 08.02.2023

Support the Policy Vision of Entrepreneurship in Less-developed Regions with Regional Venture Capital Guidance Fund

Liu Jianjun - Professor, College of Finance and Statistics, Hunan University; Chief Expert, Institute for Global Private Equity, Tsinghua University

This article is the keynote speech delivered by the author at the session themed “The new development of investment and financing in western China under balanced regional development” at the 3rd CF40 Qujiang Forum on June 10, 2023. The article only represents the author’s personal opinion and does not represent the position of CF40 or the author’s institution. 07.31.2023

Reducing Local Government Debt Risks Requires Consensus on Key Issues to Come First

Li Xunlei - Member of Academic Committee, Shanghai Finance Institute; Chief Economist, Zhongtai Securities

This article is the keynote speech made by the author at the 162nd CF40 Youth Forum biweekly closed-door seminar themed “Risk Outlook and Impacts of Urban Investment Bonds” on June 15th, 2023. The article only represents the author’s personal opinion and does not represent the position of CF40 or the author's institution. 07.27.2023

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