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Why haven’t the Fed's aggressive rate hikes triggered an emerging market crisis this time?
SUN Zihan, CF40 Institute; GUO Kai, CF40 Institute
Abstract: The Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates in the most aggressive way in 40 years starting from the year of 2022, while emerging economies as a whole have proven to be highly resilient. According to a study of data from 25 emerging economies and a look into history, we found that not every Fed rate rise was accompanied by an emerging market crisis. Dramatic changes in capital flows, particularly in the banking sector, would hit emerging markets more dramatically, ...
10.25.2023
It’s Not as Complicated as a “Balance Sheet Recession”
GUO Kai - Senior Fellow, CF40
Abstract: “Balance sheet recession” is more a description of a macro phenomenon than a complete theory. Simply applying the concept is problematic, as China’s economic data do not meet many of the important characteristics. Overemphasizing “balance sheet recession” may mislead economic conclusions and policy choices. There could be a simpler and more traditional interpretation of China’s macroeconomy, which is based on three features: first, the neutral interest rate has been...
10.09.2023
"Inventory Cycle" May Be an Illusion
ZHU He - Deputy Director, CF40 Research Department; CF40 Research Fellow
Abstract: At present, the market seems to focus on the "inventory cycle time", and there is a view that the current inventory cycle is bottoming out and will enter the active inventory replenishment stage and resonate with the recovery of demand. In reality, however, it is difficult to meet the preconditions for an inventory cycle in a modern economy. In other words, there has never been an inventory cycle, but only an inventory adjustment in the economic cycle. Over the past...
10.09.2023
How to Resolve the Principal Issue in the Current Economy?
ZHANG Bin - CF40 Non-Resident Senior Fellow; Deputy Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
The views expressed herewith are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations.
10.07.2023
How Does Technology Enable the Disposal of Non-Performing Personal Credit Assets
LIU Xiaochun - Vice President,Shanghai Finance Institute
This article has been published on Caijing May Flower. The views expressed herewith are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations.
10.07.2023
The Crucial Role of Liquidity Stability in Real Estate Market Stabilization
LIU Xiaochun - Vice President, Shanghai Finance Institute
The article is translated by CF40 and has not been subject to the review of the author himself. The views expressed herewith are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations.
09.27.2023
Refining Content on Understanding Price Mechanisms in Transition Finance
CF40 Research Department
This article was published as CF40 Policy Brief, and the author is Zhong Yi, research associate of CF40 Institute.
09.27.2023
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