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The “Involution” of China’s Export and Its Causes

Zhu He - CF40 Institute

Abstract: In the fourth quarter of 2022, China's export growth rate rapidly turned negative, but rebounded in the first quarter of 2023. Since the second quarter, it has once again turned negative, which is generally seen as a reflection of the contraction in external demand due to the slowdown in overseas economic growth. Export is also widely considered as one of the key factors constraining China's economic recovery. From August onwards, China's year-on-year export amount ... 11.06.2023

How to Expand Consumption in the Short Run

ZHANG Bin - CF40 Non-resident Senior Fellow; ZHU he, YANG Yuemin, YU Fei, CF40 Institute

Abstract: In this paper, the authors discussed two issues: first, why consumption growth has declined significantly since the outbreak of the covid-19 pandemic, and to what extent the decline can be attributed to the impact of the pandemic; and second, what policy measures we should focus on to boost consumption in the short term. At present, the main constraint on China's consumption growth lies in demand, not in supply. Growth rate of consumption fell sharply after the outb... 11.06.2023

Macro Policy and Economic Recovery after Reopening: A Cross-Country Observation

Yu Fei - CF40 Institute; Guo Kai -CF40 Institute

Abstract: Based on an analysis of data from 56 economies, we found that macro policy has a considerable impact on the extent of economic recovery after Covid reopening. Fiscal policy has a significant effect on economic recovery, and its benefit relative to cost depends on the trajectory of economic recovery. The effects of monetary policy and the channels through which it works are more subtle. A decline in real interest rate is more likely to boost economic recovery than a ... 11.01.2023

Key Features of the Current Economic Operation

YI Gang - CF40 Advisor; Chairman, China Society for Finance and Banking; Former Governor, People's Bank of China

This article was first published on the CPPCC Daily on September 19th. It is translated by CF40 and has not been reviewed by the author. The views expressed herewith are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations. 11.01.2023

Central Bank Digital Currency and Payment System Digitalization

ZHOU Xiaochuan - Vice Chairman, Boao Forum for Asia

Abstract: When it comes to constructing a new digital financial ecosystem, there are several key considerations. First, digitalizing payment systems and currency should go hand in hand; emphasize the broad concept of digital payment systems while being cautious about narrow views of digital currency. Second, the digital currency landscape is evolving, with both account-based and token-based digital currencies. Decisions need to be made regarding centralization and decentraliz... 11.01.2023

From 'belt-tightening' to 'do whatever it takes': A review of the Eurozone 'local debt' crisis

SHENG Zhongming,CF40 Institute; GUO Kai, CF40 Institute

Abstract: The problem of "local debt" in the Eurozone first came to light in Greece, and Europe's hesitant and delayed responses turned this localized risk into a multi-year debt crisis that endangered the entire Eurozone. Initially, Greece and other European countries tried to solve the debt problem through fiscal austerity. However, this led to a bigger economic downturn and higher debt risk. The "local debt" issue then spread through the "sovereign debt-banking sector" pat... 10.25.2023

Three Concerns for Economic Recovery

ZHU He - Deputy Director, CF40 Research Department; CF40 Research Fellow

Abstract: More and more researchers believe that the current round of economic recovery is entering a new phase with stronger momentum and greater magnitude. However, the performances of capital markets do not seem to be so optimistic. Now, the key is whether the policy support is strong enough to deal with the possible challenges in the future and bolster the recovery. There are at least three concerns that must be taken into account when assessing the effectiveness of polic... 10.25.2023

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