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A Year in Retrospect

CF40 Institute Research Team

Abstract: 2023 has come to an end. It has been a year with both hopes and challenges. We at CF40 hold that “good research” is even more essential in challenging times. By good research, we are referring to work that is perspective, inspiring, insightful and, very importantly, falsifiable. It is not complicated at all when put into practice - our CF40 standard is straightforward: we write reports that we genuinely believe in and would enjoy reading ourselves. We want to make r... 01.09.2024

The Forgotten Real Bills Doctrine and Less Discussed Taylor Rule Coefficients: Two Macroeconomics Open-Book Exam Questions

GUO Kai - CF40 Institute

Abstract: Monetary policy is both a science and an art. The science aspect of monetary policy is not conjured out of thin air by economists but rather derived from central banks' painful trial-and-error. Unlike more complex Keynesian or monetarist theories, the Real Bills Doctrine is a simple, rudimentary theory that aligns with common intuition and is largely unproblematic in most cases. However, sticking to this theory may have been one of the significant reasons for the fa... 01.05.2024

On the "Shadow Banking" Nature of Real Estate Enterprises

Zhu He - CF40 Institute; Guo Kai - CF40 Institute

Abstract: China’s real estate market has undergone significant changes since the second half of 2021. Sales of commercial properties and new construction have fallen sharply, and many real estate companies, including headline companies, have experienced a series of collapses and debt defaults. To adapt to the new supply and demand dynamics in the real estate market, policies have been significantly adjusted and optimized. Disposing of defaulted real estate enterprises is an i... 01.05.2024

Comparative Advantage and Financing For the Belt and Road Initiative

Zhou Xiaochuan - Vice Chairman, Boao Forum for Asia

Abstract: This year marks the tenth anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). While China has made notable strides in fostering connectivity and collaboration with partner nations under the initiative, the global landscape in which it emerged has changed dramatically, which calls for new solutions to new challenges faced by BRI and other international cooperation frameworks. A recent CICC publication, "Belt and Road Initiative at Ten," explores key issues in BRI coop... 12.18.2023

China's Current Account Surplus May Further Narrow in 2024

Sun Zihan - CF40 Institute; Zhu He - CF40 Institute

Abstract: Against the backdrop of shrinking marginal demand overseas and the domestic economy converging towards potential growth, our projection for China's current account surplus in 2024 stands at $201.2 billion, marking a reduction of approximately $45 billion compared to 2023. On the one hand, exports are expected to persist in a strategy of 'quantity over price,' where the growth in export quantity is offset by deteriorating trade conditions, resulting in a decline in t... 12.14.2023

Long Tail 2: A Cross-Country Observation of Real Estate Markets After the Bursting of the Real Estate Bubble

YU Fei - CF40 Institute; GUO Kai - CF40 Institute

Abstract: We conducted a comprehensive analysis of global data on actual housing prices, real estate investment, the number of newly started housing projects, and housing sales before and after 22 instances of real estate bubble bursts since 1970 to observe the changes in real estate markets following the bursting of real estate bubbles. The data revealed a long-tail feature: First, real estate markets take a considerable amount of time to recover after a crisis. On average, ... 12.12.2023

Global Comparison and Reflections on China’s Interest Rate Corridor Mechanism

ZHONG Yi - CF40 Institute

Abstract: On June 13, 2023, the People's Bank of China lowered the 7-day OMO (Open Market Operation) rate by 10 basis points, and simultaneously reduced the 7-day SLF (Standing Lending Facility) rate by 10 basis points. This adjustment is a manifestation of the interest rate corridor mechanism. Since the 1990s, central banks of major economies have often utilized interest rate corridor mechanisms to regulate short-term interest rates. Since 2015, China has gradually developed... 12.06.2023

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