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A Historical Review of U.S. Industrial Policy

ZHONG Yi - CF40 Institute

Abstract: Since 2020, the United States has consecutively enacted three significant bills, collectively amounting to nearly $2 trillion: the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the 2021 Chip and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. The distinctive characteristics of industrial policy embedded in these bills have triggered extensive debates regarding the resurgence of American industrial policy. Despite enduring opposition to industrial policy from mainstream Amer... 12.05.2023

How Demographic Change Impact the Economy？China’s Trend and Japan’s Experience

Abstract: The article summarized the views of experts on the impacts of demographic change at the 5th Bund Summit. They pointed out that the peaking of the working-age population and total population is China’s “new normal”, which will bring about China’s economic “new normal”: the supply shock will continue, and demand-side factors will become the main constraint on economic growth, especially in terms of household consumption. In response to the demographic change and econo... 12.04.2023

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level – Some Inferences Based on Literature Review

Guo Kai - CF40 Institute

Abstract: The paper made a literature review and drew some inferences from the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL), which may help us think about the impacts of the US high debt on inflation and asset prices and what it means for resolving China’s local government debt.The central equation of the theory can be explained as "the government's present real debt needs to be equal to the net present value of the future government's real primary surplus". This leads to the fund... 11.23.2023

Where US interest rate ends depends on China

Guo Kai - CF40 Institute

Abstract: As the Fed's rate hiking draws to a close, it may be necessary to have a basic view of where US interest rate may end. The final resting place for US interest rate refers to a level at which the nominal interest rate on long-term US treasuries will be when US economic growth and inflation return to a relatively stable state.From a longer-term perspective, there are three determinants for US nominal interest rate, namely, steady-state US growth, inflation, and the ba... 11.21.2023

Speeding up Building China into a Financial Powerhouse to Meet Socioeconomic Development and People’s Financial Needs

Liu Xiaochun - Vice President, Shanghai Finance Institute

Abstract: On October 30-31, 2023, the Central Financial Work Conference put forward the goal of building China into a financial powerhouse for the first time, elevating financial governance to an unprecedentedly level. To realize the goal, China should step up efforts in six aspects: reforming the financial governance system, clarifying the relationship between macroeconomic regulation and financial regulation, improving the financial system, and prioritizing five areas (fint... 11.16.2023

Limited Progress in Sectoral Balance Sheet Restoration: Analyzing Cash Flow and Balance Sheets Across China’s Sectors in Q3 2023

ZHU He - CF40 Institute

Abstract: In Q3 China's economy continued its recovery, with major macroeconomic indicators showing further improvement compared to Q2. Private sector investment and consumer activities are gradually returning to normal. However, there still seems to be some gap between China’s economic performance and the potential output level. The economic recovery process has exhibited uneven characteristics, reflecting a "zigzagging progress". Economic performance is inherently tied to t... 11.16.2023

Thoughts on Improving the Classification Standards of China’s Systemically Important Banks

LI Yufan - CF40 Institute

Abstract: To impose prudential regulation on systemically important banks, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision formulated an assessment methodology for global systemically important banks. On this basis, the People's Bank of China (PBC) and the National Administration of Financial Supervision have adopted the classification criteria for systemically important banks in China, and would dynamically update the list of banks annually starting from 2021. Given the recent co... 11.09.2023

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