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Post-2020 US Semiconductor Industrial Policy

ZHONG Yi - CF40 Institute

Abstract: In August 2022, the US Biden administration introduced the CHIPS and Science Act, with a total scale of nearly $280 billion, sparking widespread discussion on the US new round of semiconductor industrial policies. Unlike previous measures that focused on supporting R&D and innovation, this round of US industrial policies for the semiconductor industry emphasizes providing large-scale subsidies for the manufacturing and investment of semiconductor companies, favo... 03.11.2024

How to Understand the Growth of Electricity Consumption in 2023?

SHENG Zhongming - CF40 Institute

Abstract: In 2023, the growth rate of total societal electricity consumption reached 6.8%, 1.6 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate; at the same time, the growth rate of industrial electricity consumption was also significantly higher than the growth rate of the added value of industries above designated size. This phenomenon is relatively rare in the past decade. What is the reason behind this? This brief attempts to argue that the rapid expansion of the new ene... 03.11.2024

Rush to Safe Assets

ZHU He - CF40 Institute

Abstract: Over the past two years, China’s household sector has undergone a shift in asset allocation behavior from seeking capital appreciation to capital preservation. Regarding this phenomenon, the prevailing explanation suggests that it is a risk-averse behavior adopted by the household sector due to weak economic expectations and significant pressure on asset price reassessment, indicating a decline in risk preference. However, during the period of significant economic d... 02.21.2024

Investment in and Upgrading of China’s Manufacturing Industry

Zhang Bin - CF40 Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Deputy Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Zhu He, Sun Zihan, Zhao Honglei - CF40 Institute

Abstract: Despite various challenges, China's manufacturing sector has shown resilience in the last three years. How do we interpret such success, and will the investment growth continue? Also, we must consider if there is a risk of excessive investment and overcapacity. To do this, we first look at how manufacturing in developed countries improved at similar stages, providing a basic understanding of manufacturing investment and progress. Then, we examine if China's manufact... 02.03.2024

The Macro Policy Mix to Boost Economic Climate

ZHANG Bin - CF40 Non-Resident Senior Fellow; ZHU He, SUN Zihan, ZHAO Honglei - CF40 Institute

Abstract: In 2023, China's real GDP growth rate was 5.2%, hitting the annual growth target and surpassing the 2022 figure by 2.2 percentage points. The nominal GDP growth in 2023 was 4.6%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points compared to 2022, with the GDP deflator at -0.5%. Looking back at 2023, China's economy recovered, with resilient manufacturing investment, further optimization of export product structures, and accelerated transformation of the service industry. Howev... 01.26.2024

Final Exam Review of Middle School Mathematics: Addition, Subtraction, Multiplication, and Division of Geometric Sequences

GUO Kai - CF40 Institute

Abstract: This brief attempts to explore the impacts of basic macroeconomic variables on stock prices. Taking US stocks as an example, the Discounted Cash Flow model is employed for valuation, and five basic variables are taken into account, including real economic growth rate, inflation rate, nominal interest rate, equity risk premium, and terms of trade. In the base case scenario, the calculated Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for US equities is approximately 24.4. Building on... 01.26.2024

Modern Monetary Theory Is A Wrong Theory and A Wrong Prescription

GUO Kai - CF40 Institute

Abstract: There is a niche yet popular view that Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is an effective theory for guiding macroeconomic policy, and China should also implement similar policies backed by MMT. While some monetary policy tools indeed possess (quasi-) fiscal features, the foundation for implementing MMT at scale does not exist. First, this paper attempts to illustrate that MMT is a wrong theory. Then, it explains the reasons why the United States has not implemented polic... 01.12.2024

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