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China Needs to Increase Social Mobility to Build an Olive-shaped Society

CAI Fang - CF40 Advisor; Chief Expert of National Think Tank, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

This article was published on CF40’s WeChat account on September 14. It is translated by CF40 and has not been subject to the review of the author himself. The views expressed herein are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or any other organizations. 09.26.2022

China Macro Doctor (CMD): Diagnosis of China’s Macroeconomy, August 2022

ZHANG Bin - CF40 Nonresident Senior Fellow; ZHANG Jiajia - CF40 Research Associate

I. CHINA’S MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ?China’s economy was contracting, with PMI lower than 50. July recorded a manufacturing PMI of 49.4, 0.4 percentage points higher than in July. Large-sized manufacturers’ PMI was 50.5, 0.7 percentage points up from July; that of medium-sized manufacturers was 48.9, 0.4 percentage points higher than in July; and that of small ones, 47.6, 0.3 percentage points down from July. ?Industrial production rebounded. In August, the value added of in... 09.21.2022

China's 1H22 Foreign Capital Inflows and 2H22 Capital Market Outlook

ZHANG Yu - Member of CF40 Youth Forum; Assistant Director & Chief Macro Analyst, Hua Chuang Securities Research Institute

This text examines the U.S. and Chinese economic performance and forecasts China’s equity market for the rest of the year. It warns against probable RMB depreciation that could be triggered by depleting growth momentum and a stronger USD. 09.15.2022

Lowering Interest Rate and Stabilizing Exchange Rate Are Not in Conflict

ZHANG Bin - CF40 Non-Resident Senior Fellow Deputy Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Despite the depreciation pressure on the yuan, lowering policy rate is not in conflict with stabilizing exchange rate. In addition to interest rate spread, economic fundamentals are more critical to stabilizing capital flows and RMB exchange rate. It has been found that the more prosperous the domestic economy is, the higher the business demand for the yuan and hence the stronger the support for the yuan. The policy implication is that either lowering interest rate or fiscal ... 09.15.2022

How will the RMB Brace for a Strong Dollar?

XU Gao- Member of CF40 Youth Fourm Chief Economist, Bank of China Securities; YI Huan - Chief Macro Economist, Huatai Securities, et al..

Abstract: Following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish speech in Jackson Hole on August 26, non-dollar currencies tumbled as the CNY dropped below 6.91 against the dollar, pushing the US dollar index to a new 20-year high. How long will the dollar's strength persist? What will happen to the RMB's exchange rate and those of other non-USD currencies? Will the yuan's depreciation limit China's monetary policy? What is the likelihood that the US economy will experie... 09.14.2022

Smart Contract and E-CNY

Author：MU Changchun - CF40 Member; Director, Digital Currency Research Institute, People's Bank of China

E-CNY, as a digital form of legal tender, provides three benefits that facilitate the application of smart contract– trust, interoperability, and the late-mover advantage. The digital RMB smart contract ecology could be constructed according to the following routes: 1) adhering to centralized management and a two-tier operational structure, 2) ensuring the legitimacy and validi... 09.12.2022

Global Economy Amid Influence from Multiple Factors

LIU Jun - CF40 Member; President, Bank of Communications

The world economy is becoming unprecedentedly complicated where multiple factors interweave with multi-dimensional implications and global growth, inhibited by public heath, geopolitical and ideological challenges, is getting trapped in a downward spiral. Pursuing economic and national security by deglobalization is a pseudo proposition. Security builds on sustained economic growth, while inflation and bottlenecks to real economy development cannot be solved unless productivi... 09.08.2022

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