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China Should Restructure Its Macroeconomic Policy Toolkit and Make Direct Impact on Final Consumption

PENG Wensheng - CF40 Member; Chief Economist and Head of Research Department, CICC. XIE Chao - Research Fellow, CICC Global Institute

While China’s economic data in July missed forecasts, export and infrastructure investment have sustained strong momentum. But they have failed to translate into demand sufficient for pushing up economic growth. Under the framework combining tight credit condition, loose monetary policy and loose fiscal policy, China should focus on increasing the multiplier effect of fiscal moves and make direct impact on final consumption by creating new policy tools. 09.07.2022

Common Prosperity is Essentially Shared Development of All

LIU Shangxi - CF40 Member; President, Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences

This is the preface of the book Common Prosperity and People’s Development: China’s Logic and Choice authored by Liu Shangxi. It is published on CF40’s WeChat blog on August 27, 2022. This is translated by CF40 and has not been reviewed by the author himself. The views expressed herewith are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations. 09.06.2022

Easing Property Developers’ Cash Crunch Should Be Top Priority for Chinese Policy-makers

Author：CF40 Research Department

The financial strain on China’s real estate developers is what stalled the construction projects and promoted homebuyers to go on a mortgage strike, but the cash flow pressure is rooted in the defects of the developer’s business model – their reliance on unconventional financing and colossal “idle assets”. CF40 experts believe that timely delivery of pre-sold apartments is the ... 09.01.2022

China Should Promote “Algorithm Audit” to Improve Algorithm Governance

SHEN Yan - CF40 Guest Member; Professor, National School of Development, Peking University; Deputy Director, Institute of Digital Finance, Peking University

This article was published on CF40’s WeChat blog on July 31, 2022. The views expressed herewith are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations. It is translated by CF40 and has not been subject to the review of the author herself. 08.30.2022

How Should China Cope with the Return of Inflation

YU Yongding - CF40 Advisor; Academician, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)

Over the past decade, China’s inflation has remained at a low level. The pandemic-induced shocks have led to weakened demand and a sharp decline in supply, which contributed to a low inflation rate. But with the gradual recovery of demand, China’s inflation might rise sharply. Despite that, China should stick to the expansionary fiscal and monetary policies and learn to tolerate high inflation. 08.25.2022

Behind Better-Than-Expected Exports in July: Outlook of Manufacturing Investment in the Second Half of 2022

Author：ZHU He - Research Fellow and Deputy Director, CF40 Research Department; SUN Zihan - Research Fellow, CF40 Research Department

The paper examines the relation between export and manufacturing investment, and the driving force of this round of manufacturing investment growth to assess the conditions of the macro economy. Specifically, it divides the manufacturing sector into three subsectors, i.e. raw materials, capital goods and consumer goods, and decomposes export growth into quantity effect and pric... 08.23.2022

Future of Big Finance: How Will the Trend and Structure of China’s Financial Sector Evolve as Its Real Estate Market Starts to Cool?

LI Xunlei - SFI Academic Member; Chief Economist at Zhongtai Securities

In this article, the author explores the close relationship between the real estate sector and the financial sector by analyzing cases of China and Japan. He then points out that the upward trend of the real estate sector in China may have come to an end, a fact that will bring huge impact on the financial sector and accelerate the transformation and innovation of the latter. It will create huge household demand for wealth management, and in turn boost the growth of the finan... 08.22.2022

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