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Why the U.S. Narrative of China's "Overcapacity" is Misguided

Yu Fei (CF40 Istitute) and Zhu He (CF40 Istitute) and

Recently, a popular viewpoint among U.S. officials regarding Chinese manufacturing is that there has been excessive investment in the Chinese manufacturing sector, leading to widespread "overcapacity." We first outline three basic facts: (1) Manufacturing fixed asset investment does not fully translate into production capacity; (2) There is no clear correlation between the growth rate of capacity and overcapacity; (3) The growth rate of capacity and the increase in ... 08.08.2024

Addressing Trade Imbalance

Zhang Bin (Institute of World Economics and Politics, CASS) Zhu He (CF40 Institute) Sun Zihan(CF40 Institute)

China has experienced three continuously expanding trade surpluses since 2000. This article explains the reasons behind three instances of rising trade surpluses and evaluates the welfare impacts of trade surpluses from multiple perspectives. It also offers policy recommendations for addressing trade imbalances. 08.08.2024

How the United States Built a Unified National Market

Zhong Yi (CF40 Institute) and Qi Hanbo (CF40 Institute)

The United States is a large-scale economy and a federal country composed of 50 states with considerable autonomy. In its early days, interstate market segmentation was evident and local protectionism prevailed. However, the U.S. has now established a relatively complete unified national market, and its successful experience is worth studying and learning from. This article explores this history and finds that the principle of the United States in promoting the construction o... 08.05.2024

The Long Tail IV - No Oversupply but Misallocation in Real Estate Market

Yu Fei (CF40 Institute)　Guo Kai （CF40 Institute）

Firstly, the performance of the housing market will be highly differentiated. The real estate market in first-tier cities is likely to rebound and recover quickly, while that in third-tier cities may continue to be sluggish. The growth or decline of the real estate market in the future will no longer be a synchronized phenomenon across the country. Secondly, considering the spatial misallocation, China's demand for new housing will significantly increase. In reality, because ... 07.17.2024

Assuming a Temporary Shift to Nominal GDP Growth Targeting

ZHONG Yi（CF40 Institute）

Since 2023, China's economy has continued to recover driven by policies, with real GDP growing beyond expectations, but ordinary people and enterprises have a weak sense of gain from economic growth, mainly because the nominal GDP growth rate, which is directly related to residents' income and corporate profits, has been lower than the real growth rate in the same period for four consecutive quarters. Under the current circumstances, if China temporarily turns to nominal GDP ... 07.09.2024

When Inflation meets Housing Prices

Sheng Zhongming（CF40 Institute）　Zhu He（CF40 Institute）

This article attempts to re-estimate the weight of housing-related expenditures and their price changes in CPI accounting from the perspective of opportunity cost. After the reassessment, housing expenditures replace food expenditures as the largest part of the CPI accounting weight, and the correlation between the price changes of housing expenditures and house prices significantly increases. The consumer price level calculated on this basis reflects more information on chan... 06.28.2024

The Long Tail III - Assuming Entry into the "Existing Home Era"

Yu Fei（CF40 Institute）　Guo Kai（CF40 Institute）

If we accept that the demand for new housing of 600 million square meters is the physical bottom, it means that the speed and amplitude of current China's real estate adjustment cycle are both greater than the typical real estate crises internationally. Given that the economic cycles driven by the real estate cycle internationally, the macroeconomy is expected to stabilize and rebound earlier than the real estate industry itself. If the adjustment in China's real estate marke... 06.28.2024

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