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Assuming a Temporary Shift to Nominal GDP Growth Targeting
Date:07.09.2024 Author:ZHONG Yi(CF40 Institute)

Abstract: Many economic studies have shown that targeting nominal GDP can effectively deal with problems such as economic recession. The Federal Reserve considered using nominal GDP as a monetary policy target between 2011 and 2012, but ultimately gave up due to practical operational hurdles such as data revisions, difficulty in determining an appropriate target, and communication difficulties. Unlike the United States, China seems to have more realistic conditions for targeting nominal GDP , and the policy is more feasible:1)The private sector has a high level of confidence in the government's ability to achieve economic goals;2)China only needs to shift from the current real GDP target to the nominal GDP target, and the policy framework will not be adjusted much. In addition, the nominal GDP target is divided into a growth rate target and a level target. This article believes that it may be more appropriate to target the nominal GDP growth rate: 1)Targeting nominal GDP growth is more moderate than Targeting nominal GDP level;  2)Targeting nominal GDP growth has a greater room for error; 3) data for nominal GDP is easier to calibrate.

Since 2023, China's economy has continued to recover driven by policies, with real GDP growing beyond expectations, but ordinary people and enterprises have a weak sense of gain from economic growth, mainly because the nominal GDP growth rate, which is directly related to residents' income and corporate profits, has been lower than the real growth rate in the same period for four consecutive quarters. Under the current circumstances, if China temporarily turns to nominal GDP growth targeting, it will help to cope with the current challenges of low inflation and insufficient aggregate demand: 1)it will increase the sense of gain of economic entities and improve their expectations for future economic growth ; 2)it will achieve better coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, which will help to get out of the low inflation dilemma ; 3)it will help reduce debt risks ; 4)a clear nominal GDP growth path will help residents, enterprises and governments plan long-term economic activities.