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The Methods and Effects of Central Bank "Balancing Sheet Expansion"— Discussion on Three Strategies for Central Bank Purchases of Government Bonds

Zhu He（CF40 Institute）　Zhang Jingchu（CF40 Institute）

We have sorted out and compared the commonly used quantitative policy tools of the central bank, including targeted re-lending (PSL), structural monetary policy, reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, foreign exchange purchases, government bond purchases, medium-term lending facility (MLF), and reverse repo transactions. By analyzing the characteristics and transmission mechanisms of each policy tool, we explore which quantitative monetary policy tool is most effective in prom... 06.28.2024

If the Government Begins Purchasing Real Estate

SUN Zihan（CF40 Institute）　　Guo Kai（CF40 Institute）

Recently, the real estate market has been flooded with significant policies, and relevant departments have also begun implementing measures to digest existing housing stocks. This paper attempts to analyze the fundamental elements and potential impacts of government purchase programs from a cost-benefit perspective. 06.28.2024

The Gains and Losses of Japan’s Lost 30 Years and Lessons for China

CF40 Research Department

Abstract: After the bursting of the real estate bubble in 1990, Japan’s economic growth fell into a slump that lasted for 30 years. Japan attempted to delay the outbreak of the real estate crisis, but the market eventually went through the necessary corrections, and the delay only prolonged the crisis. Additionally, Japan’s evasion and concealment of bad debt eventually led to a systemic banking crisis, significantly increasing the difficulty and cost of dealing with bad debt... 05.15.2024

How to Understand the Slump in China’s Long-Term Interest Rates?

ZHU He (CF40 Institute)

Since the fourth quarter of 2023, China's long-term interest rates have undergone a slump without apparent adjustments to monetary policy, a rare phenomenon in over a decade. Various studies attribute this decline to mismatches in supply and demand for long-term bonds, excess liquidity, and increased duration of financial institutions' liabilities. 05.07.2024

How to Resolve Financial Institutions at Risk (Real Estate Companies)?

SUN Zihan and GUO Kai (CF40 Institute)

Recognizing the financial nature of Chinese real estate enterprises, we argue that resolving failing and likely-to-fail real estate firms should learn from how troubled financial institutions are handled. Drawing from the lessons of the 2007-2009 U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and subsequent global financial turmoil, along with the establishment of structured resolution regimes for systematically important financial entities, we propose a roadmap and operational framework for ... 05.06.2024

Balancing the Growth and Risk of Debt

ZHANG Bin (Chinese Academy of Social Science), ZHU He (C40 Institute), SHENG Zhongming (C40 Institute)

The rapid rise in China’s debt and leverage has been a major concern, with controlling debt growth and stabilizing leverage ratios being a key focus of recent economic policies. This paper explores the evolution of debt behaviors over the past twenty years, addressing four key questions: where the debt comes from, the role of debt, how to spot debt risks, and how to manage the balance between debt growth and risk. 04.29.2024

Preventing the Fallacy of Composition Caused by the Household Sector Rushing to Safe Assets

Abstract: Over the past two years, China’s household sector has undergone a shift in asset allocation behavior from seeking capital appreciation to capital preservation. Regarding this phenomenon, the prevailing explanation suggests that it is a risk-averse behavior adopted by the household sector due to weak economic expectations and significant pressure on asset price reassessment, indicating a decline in risk preference. However, during the period of significant economic d... 04.25.2024

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