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Data Marketization and Cross-border Data Flow

CF40 Research Department

Abstract: Recently, the China Finance 40 Forum and the China Center for International Economic Exchanges jointly held the 6th Bund Summit, during which experts discussed issues related to the data marketization and cross-border data flow.International experts emphasized the importance of data and cross-border data flow from several perspectives: data is the “oxygen” of the digital economy, and cross-border data flow is the key to global data connectivity, driving innovation a... 10.28.2024

Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Macroeconomics and Finance, and AI Regulation

CF40 Research Department

Abstract: Recently, the Sixth Bund Summit was co-hosted by the China Finance 40 Forum and the China Center for International Economic Exchanges. Experts attending the summit discussed the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on macroeconomics and financial stability.The consensus at the summit was that AI is still in its nascent stage. While significant progress has been made in applying large models to commercial and engineering fields, AI’s potential i... 10.28.2024

A More Clearly Defined Commitment to Stabilizing Growth: Detailed Analysis of the Central Bank's New “Three Arrows”

Abstract: The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26th demonstrated the government's determination to stabilize growth, with achieving the "three stabilities"—stable growth, stable real estate market, and stable stock market—becoming the main theme of current macroeconomic policies. "Ensuring necessary fiscal expenditure" remains key to boosting aggregate demand at this stage, and there is a necessity and feasibility for fiscal policy to exert marginal strength. "Pr... 10.23.2024

Anchor of the global manufacturing goods prices lies in China

Du Yuchen,Guo Kai

Abstract: For a significant period, US interest rates have been considered the anchor for global capital pricing, regardless of the exchange rate policies or capital market openness of individual countries. Similarly, we propose that a parallel phenomenon exists within the global manufacturing market, where China’s prices serve as the anchor for global manufacturing costs. Whether a product is produced in China or imported from China, China’s prices ultimately determine globa... 10.23.2024

Estimating China’s R*

Abstract: The neutral interest rate is the risk-free real interest rate when the economy is at full employment, and inflation is at its target level. Like potential output, the neutral interest rate is an unobservable rate, yet it is an important concept and indicator for financial markets, interest rate analysis, and monetary policy. Although the neutral interest rate cannot be directly measured, real interest rates can be observed. Unlike the continuous decline in real inte... 10.23.2024

How to Achieve a Rise in Long-Term Interest Rates

Abstract: Since the fourth quarter of 2023, China’s long-term interest rates have experienced a significant decline, raising concerns among regulators about the duration risk faced by small and medium-sized financial institutions heavily invested in long-term bonds. Over the past month, regulatory authorities have taken various measures to halt this one-sided downward trend in long-term rates, yet there remains considerable divergence among domestic and international market p... 10.23.2024

How Did The Federal Reserve (Used To) Purchase Treasury Bonds?

Abstract: There are four potential scenarios for the central bank's purchase of government bonds. After incorporating government bond transactions into its monetary policy toolkit, the People's Bank of China is most likely to use bond purchases as a liquidity management tool. To this end, this paper reviews the Federal Reserve's bond buying and selling practices prior to 2008, analyzing aspects such as trading rules, operational frequency, maturity distribution, and their imp... 10.23.2024

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