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How to Understand the Slump in China’s Long-Term Interest Rates?

ZHU He (CF40 Institute)

Since the fourth quarter of 2023, China's long-term interest rates have undergone a slump without apparent adjustments to monetary policy, a rare phenomenon in over a decade. Various studies attribute this decline to mismatches in supply and demand for long-term bonds, excess liquidity, and increased duration of financial institutions' liabilities. 05.07.2024

How to Resolve Financial Institutions at Risk (Real Estate Companies)?

SUN Zihan and GUO Kai (CF40 Institute)

Recognizing the financial nature of Chinese real estate enterprises, we argue that resolving failing and likely-to-fail real estate firms should learn from how troubled financial institutions are handled. Drawing from the lessons of the 2007-2009 U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and subsequent global financial turmoil, along with the establishment of structured resolution regimes for systematically important financial entities, we propose a roadmap and operational framework for ... 05.06.2024

The US Economy is the Greatest Uncertainty for the Global Economy in 2024

Nathan Sheets - Group Chief Economist at Citigroup

Q1: How do you take stock of the U.S. economic outlook in 2024? Although the worries on recession seem to have subdued, there are still some who suggest that a recession may be inevitable for the U.S. to bring inflation back to target. What is your take on that?The U.S. economy has been extremely resilient over the last several years. As 2023 began, I was expecting a recession in the year. Instead, we've seen above-trend growth from the United States.The key to the strength o... 04.17.2024

The End of Supply Is Demand, The End of Demand Is Human Nature

Abstract: Since 2020, China’s manufacturing sector has experienced rapid growth in both investment and exports. However, the profitability of this sector has been declining, with prices facing downward pressures. This phenomenon illustrates the fact that “the end of supply is demand.” On one hand, when production increases rapidly without a corresponding surge in demand, a drop in prices is inevitable; on the other hand, the structure of demand influences the level of supply.... 04.17.2024

Second-hand Housing Price Corrections Nearly Complete, Primary Housing Market Function Should Be Restored As Soon As Possible

GAO Shanwen - Chief Economist of Essence Securities

Abstract: In 2023, as new home sales declined, second-hand home sales rebounded significantly due to ongoing price decreases. Third-party data suggests second-hand home prices may have adjusted to a reasonable level, indicating the price correction is nearly complete.The new home market's difficulties likely stem from growing delivery risks and insufficient price drops. To stabilize the real estate market and economy swiftly, it's critical to address real estate companies' li... 04.17.2024

Seven Key Insights from the Singapore FinTech Festival

LIU Xiaochun - Vice President, Shanghai Finance Institute

Abstract: In the recent decade or so, Singapore has continued to introduce policies and measures to encourage fintech innovation, so that it has gradually become an international fintech center with considerable attraction, Its practices as well as the phenomenon of the fintech development have a revealing effect on China. As an observer of the 2023 Singapore FinTech Festival, I have seven thoughts. 1.FinTech companies in Singapore and nearby countries and regions have primar... 04.17.2024

Four Key Directions for Building a Digital Financial Powerhouse

HUANG Zhuo - Deputy Director of Institute of Digital Finance, Peking University

Abstract: To build China as a digital financial powerhouse, we need to focus on four main areas. First, we must promote the digital transformation and upgrade of financial institutions, effectively carrying out supply-side reforms in the financial sector. Second, we should vigorously develop industrial digital finance and cross-border digital finance to better support the real economy and achieve a dual circulation of finance both domestically and internationally. Third, the ... 04.17.2024

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