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Interview with Jason Furman: 2.3% inflation is good enough for the Federal Reserve

Jason Furman is Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard University, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers of the White House, and a member of the Bund Summit's International Advisory Council.Let’s first talk about the broad situation of the US economy. The recent rise in unemployment rate has triggered worries of a looming recession, while many others are still expecting the US to deliver a perfect “soft landing”. How do you evaluate the US... 08.29.2024

Reassessing the Financial Function of Fiscal Policy

Abstract: The buying and selling of government bonds by the central bank have many benefits, such as addressing the inversion of growth rates, adjusting government debt structure, and promoting financial structural adjustment. Therefore, it is necessary to reassess the financial function of fiscal policy. First, from the perspective of the relationship between fiscal policy and currency, the central bank's purchase and sale of government bonds help to better leverage the role... 06.19.2024

Policy Implications and Market Effects of The People’s Bank of China Trading Government Bonds in Open Market

Abstract: As one of central bank’s open market operations, considering relevant operations that China’s central bank (The People’s Bank of China, PBOC) has conducted, central bank trading government bonds in open market, which is also an internationally recognized tool in the monetary policy toolbox of central banks around the world, is the application of an existing tool in a new context. The recent decision by China’s central bank to initiate trading of government bonds in ... 06.19.2024

Understanding Debt Growth and Associated Risk from the Perspective of Financial Cycles

Summary: At China’s current stage, it is crucial to address the debt repayment issues faced by the corporate sector and local governments. This includes not only default risks but also the downward pressure on aggregate demand caused by debtors being forced to cut spending to repay debts. China is in the middle of a financial cycle downturn, with insufficient endogenous demand momentum. Unlike the demand-driven downturn of the financial cycle in the United States, China’s dow... 06.04.2024

Debt Risks From a Risk Trade-off Perspective

Abstract: Do not try to reject debts, as a market economy is a debt economy. In a market economy, debts are financial tools for asset creation and macro-regulatory tools of governments. Whether the debt risks will spread or converge depends on whether two virtuous cycles can be realized: the cycle of debts and assets at the micro level, and the cycle of debts and economic growth at the macro level. It also depends on whether the micro risks are public and macro, and whether t... 06.04.2024

Perspectives on EV Industrial Policy from Chinese, U.S., and European Experts

CF40 Research Department

Recently, the China Finance 40 Forum (CF40) and the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)jointly hosted the 16th CF40-PIIE Young Economists Forum - Green Industrial Policy and Trade Tensions. US experts believed that subsidies can promote the development of domestic industries but also create spillover effects on other countries. High-wage countries need to raise tariffs to protect their domestic markets. Trade competition in the electric vehicle industry betw... 05.15.2024

A Review of the Recent Quantitative Crisis and Suggestions for Future Developments

CF40 Research Department

Quantitative investing, at its essence, is to replace human decision-making with mathematical models. Investment philosophy, financial theory, and computer are the three main elements. Quantitative investing mainly includes two types: fundamental and technical analysis. Quantitative trading in China originated in 2010 and, after explosive growth from 2018 to 2021, has now entered a stage of high-quality development. 05.15.2024

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