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How Will Fed’s Hikes be and Affect China?

Ding Anhua - Chief Economist, China Merchants Bank

Abstract: The downward inflationary trend in the US is well established, and the policy rate is likely to peak at no more than 5%. However, a shift in the Fed’s monetary policy may come later than the market expects. For the Chinese economy, on the one hand, the pressure on capital outflows under China’s capital account is expected to ease; on the other hand, the pressure under China's current account may rise and become one of the main risk points.Last year, the US economy f... 02.28.2023

China Has to Vigorously Develop Family Pension Funds

Zheng Bingwen - Director of the World Social Security Research Center, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

This article was the transcript of the author's speech at the 2022 Bund Summit on Dec. 11, 2022. It is translated by CF40 and has not been subject to the review of the author himself. The views expressed herein are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or any other organizations. 02.28.2023

Suggestions for China’s Registration-Based IPO Reform

CF40 Research Department

This article is a CF40 Policy Brief based on a recent CF40 closed-door seminar on “Comprehensive registration-based IPO system reform and building a multilayered capital market in China” compiled by CF40 Research Department. It is translated by CF40 and has not been subject to the review of speakers at the seminar themselves. The views expressed herewith are the speakers’ own and do not represent those of CF40 or any other organization. 02.27.2023

Consumption is the Main Bottleneck of China’s Economic Circulation

XU Qiyuan - CF40 Guest Researcher; Deputy Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

This is the comment made by the author at the monthly data analysis conference of the China Macroeconomy forum on January, 2023. It is translated by CF40 and has not been reviewed by the author. The views expressed herewith are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations. 02.21.2023

RMB Exchange Rate Changes and Central Bank Policy Responses

YU Yongding - CF40 Advisor; Academician, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

The PBC's "benign neglect," an indirect policy tool devised in 2022 to influence the value of the RMB, was quite successful. It allows the market to determine the exchange rate while retaining capital controls as a last resort. It should be the most effective currency strategy for China's central bank. 02.21.2023

Five issues for China’s economic recovery in 2023

Liu Xiaochun - Vice President, Shanghai Finance Institute

As China ushers in a new year of economic recovery, the government could consider five issues: 1) recognize the causes of the economy's decline and implement stimulus policies, 2) stimulate the role of the market and create a good business environment, 3) remain vigilant against financial risks during recovery, 4) adapt to the two-way fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate, and 5) allow banks and other financial institutions to help the market achieve effective resource alloc... 02.20.2023

How to deal with negative population growth from a macroeconomic perspective

CAI Fang - CF40 Advisor; Chief Expert of National Think Tank, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

This article was the transcript of the author's speech at the 2022 Sohu Finance Annual Conference, first published by Changan Avenue Reading Club on January 19th, 2023. It is translated by CF40 and has not been subject to the review of the author himself. The views expressed herein are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or any other organizations. 02.14.2023

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