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Boosting Consumption Should Be the Priority of Growth Stabilization Efforts in 2023

LI Xunlei Member of Academic Committee, Shanghai Finance Institute; Chief Economist, Zhongtai Securities

Abstract: China’s economy faces pressure from insufficient domestic demand in the long term and subdued external demand in the short term. The current problem is how to boost consumption. Booming consumption is the building block of economic growth in the long term. In 2023, against the backdrop of weakening investment and export, there is no doubt that consumption will make a greater contribution to economic growth. The author puts forward three policy recommendations to bol... 02.08.2023

Eight Assessments of China’s Economy in 2023

YU Yongding - CF40 Advisor Academician, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

This article was released on CF40’s WeChat blog on January 18, 2023. The views expressed herewith are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations. It is translated by CF40 and has not been reviewed by the author. 02.07.2023

China Macro Doctor (CMD): Diagnosis of China’s Macroeconomy, December 2022

ZHANG Bin - CF40 Nonresident Senior Fellow; ZHANG Jiajia - CF40 Research Associate

I.CHINA’S MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ?China’s economy was contracting. December recorded a manufacturing PMI of 47, 1.0 percentage points lower than November. Large-sized manufacturers’ PMI was 48.3, 0.8 percentage points down from November; that of medium-sized manufacturers was 46.4, 1.7 percentage points down from November; and that of small ones, 44.7, 0.9 percentage points down from November.?Industrial production dropped. In December, the value added of industries above ... 01.29.2023

Macro Policy Poised for a Pivotal Role in China’s Economic Recovery

CF40 Research Department

At present, China's economy is in the early stage of bottoming out, providing a window period for the macro policy to play a pivotal role. Experts called for more vigorous fiscal policy, breaking the 3% deficit rate constraint and focusing on subsidizing low-income households and SMEs. Further easing monetary policy should be adopted to support economic recovery and release positive policy signals to the market. Moreover, China should also seize the opportunities brought by a... 01.29.2023

The Scarring Effect of COVID-19 and What Next for China's Real Estate Sector

GAO Shanwen - CF40 Academic Committee Member; Chief Economist, Essence Securities

COVID-19 has injured Chinese households and businesses’ mentality and balance sheets, and policy support is needed to repair these scars. Particularly, the liquidity crisis facing the real estate sector in China has exposed the inherent vulnerability of its high turnover growth model, which was exacerbated by deleveraging policies and Covid’s blow. Going forward, the real estate sector will see an orderly resolution of defaults and business model transformation. This article ... 01.29.2023

"Algorithm Review": A Critical Step toward Compliance

SHEN Yan - CF40 Guest Member; Deputy Director, Institute of Digital Finance, Peking University; HUANG Yiping - Chairman, CF40 Academic Committee; Deputy Dean, National School of Development, Peking University

This article was released on CF40’s WeChat blog on December 30, 2022. The views expressed herewith are the author’s own and do not represent those of CF40 or other organizations. It is translated by CF40 and has not been reviewed by the author. 01.13.2023

Financial support for the real economy entails more than surrendering part of profits

LIU Xiaochun - Vice President, Shanghai New Financial Research Institute

Finance promotes market resource allocation by investing in profitable, innovative, and promising businesses rather than all businesses. Instead of complaining about financing difficulties, businesses should strive to earn the market's trust through good management capabilities. Aside from loans, banks can and should support the real economy through a variety of financial services. 12.29.2022

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