中國金融四十人論壇工作論文系列
CF40 Working Paper Series
NO. CF40WP2017007（總第60期）
China’s Investment and Rate of Return on Capital Revisited
唐涯、徐建國、張勛
2017年03月05日
Abstract：We revisit China’s suspected overinvestment problem by examining the rate of return on capital from two perspectives. First, we find that two existing methods of estimating the rate of return generate conflicting results, and we succeed in reconciling them. Our revised estimates show that the rate of return rose sharply from 1998 to 2014, which helps explain the strong investment drive. Second, we explore what caused the rate of return to rise. We find the explanation lies mainly with the long-term factor of rising total factor productivity but that the short-term cyclical factor of low real interest rates has also contributed.
Key words：Overinvestment; Capital Return; Total Factor Productivity; Real Interest Rate; Financial Development
（張勛，CF40·青年論壇會員、北京師范大學國民核算研究院講師。）
報告全文： China’s Investment and Rate of Return on Capital Revisited
說明：中國金融四十人論壇（CF40）是非官方、非營利性的專業(yè)智庫，專注于經濟金融領域的政策研究。本工作論文是未曾公開發(fā)表的論文。文中觀點僅代表作者本人，不代表本論壇及作者所在單位意見。未經許可，謝絕任何形式的轉載和復制。
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