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China-US Relations, Industrial Policy and Overcapacity
Date:10.28.2024 Author:C. Fred Bergsten and Yu Yongding


Abstract: Regarding China-US relations, Dr. Bergsten argues that a managed competitive cooperation and a functional decoupling strategy are the only ways to constructively manage bilateral relations, emphasizing the need to set out different groups of issues. The two countries can continue to seek new topics within the global economic agenda where rules have yet to be established and collaboratively develop new regulations. Among the new U.S. presidential candidates, Harris is seen as a more willing partner for constructive cooperation compared to the unpredictability of Trump. Yu Yongding said that cooperation between the U.S. and China is crucial, and acknowledging this could resolve many specific issues. Unfortunately, both the Trump and Biden administrations have adopted policies aimed at containing China, which is fundamentally misguided and detrimental to both sides. There is hope that the future U.S. government will change this policy to strengthen China-US cooperation. The U.S. has not sufficiently supported WTO rules in recent years and should cease obstructing the WTO’s functionality in the future.

On the issue of industrial policy and overcapacity, Bergsten contended that past industrial policies in the U.S. have been unsuccessful, and a new wave of industrial policy is unlikely to yield better results. Production aimed at meeting domestic and foreign demand does not necessarily equate to overcapacity. However, substantial government subsidies, preferential treatment for domestic firms, and discrimination against foreign investments can indeed lead to problems. A dialogue on industrial policies between the U.S. and China is anticipated. Yu Yongding Yu believed that two cases of overcapacity should be distinguished. At the macroeconomic level, China’s problem is insufficient effective demand, thus overcapacity does not exist. In contrast, for specific industries like electric vehicles and lithium batteries, market mechanisms should be primarily used to address overcapacity, as the government lacks the capacity to determine its existence. Discussions on these issues should clearly separate industrial policy from trade policy.