Abstract: Regarding the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve monetary policy, Mr. Robert Rubin believed that while the U.S. economy continues to grow, its pace has slowed, and a recession is unlikely. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with future policies to be determined based on subsequent data.
Rubin also noted that the U.S. faces serious fiscal challenges, but its strong economy provides the capacity to manage its debt issues. However, the current political environment is not conducive to addressing this problem. Rubin said that a second Trump administration would pose multiple risks to both the U.S. economy and society, as well as to the global. He further acknowledged the validity of U.S. concerns over supply chain security, though the challenge lies in determining the appropriate lines between security risks and other risks. He advocated for disciplined tariff policies, limiting them to areas genuinely necessary for supply chain protection, while criticizing politicians for often overstepping reasonable boundaries with their tariff policies.
On the issue of capacity in the green transition sector, Huang Yiping’s “Global South Green Development Plan” aligns with U.S. economist Brian Deese’s “Clean Energy Marshall Plan”. Rubin suggested that if the U.S. and China could somehow overcome the mistrust of each other and work together, and recognize that some areas we’re just not going to agree on and maybe even disagree strongly, but there’s so many other areas in which we can benefit, then this is a good example.
Regarding AI, Rubin highlighted the enormous potential of AI to drive economic growth while acknowledging the real risks it entails. He stressed the importance of joint efforts by the U.S. and China to develop a global mechanism. Huang Yiping emphasized the need to carefully manage the technological development process, enhance retraining and reemployment efforts, and strengthen social safety nets to provide basic living support for the unemployed.
